A look back on predictions for 2023 and new predictions for 2024

This post is adapted from an email originally shared on December 15, 2023. If you would like to receive future emails, you can sign up here.

Last December, I made five predictions for 2023. As the year draws to a close, it’s time to check in and settle the score:

1. Conversations about reading instruction will keep heating up, and the best ways to support multilingual learners will take center stage in the debate. Correct.
   - Sold A Story continued to loom large in popular conversations about reading with many “the problem with the science of reading” articles popping up.
   - The Reading League and the National Committee for Effective Literacy jointly released this statement in November to reinforce what the science of reading is/is not and bring greater attention to the research that supports emerging bilingual/multilingual learners.
2. We will learn more about what AI can and cannot do for instruction — and ChatGPT will inspire long conversations about what the future of writing instruction should look like and how to grade student work. Correct.
   - Hundreds of teachers created videos or blogs for other teachers during 2023 with tips on how to use AI to free up time, and OpenAI weighed in with their own thoughts on how to use ChatGPT in the classroom. Education policy makers began to reckon with guardrails needed to protect students. The conversation generally moved away from problems alone and toward how to balance risks and opportunities.
3. Student learning outcomes will improve overall, but the trend lines will be choppy. Proficiency rates will swing up and down as cohorts of students who were impacted by the pandemic in different ways progress through school. Nope.
   - National and international test results continued to show nothing but bad news for student learning this year — in reading, math, and social studies. State test scores show a more complex picture, with the word “rebound” appearing in a number of states’ press releases (NE, WA, LA). There may be some cohort effect starting to show up in year-over-year results, but there is no clear picture of recovery.
4. The ESSER spend-down frenzy will begin (barely). Every problem schools face will have highly marketed solutions that can be purchased with remaining ESSER funds. Somewhat.
   - There was plenty of commentary on the ESSER spend down and looming fiscal cliff in 2023. There is growing attention to “what percent of ESSER III has been spent?” We’ve started to see some useful sites giving state-by-state information. But, with $67.6B left to obligate by September 2024, I sense the “how do we spend the rest of this money?” conversations are still on the horizon.
5. Instructional journalists inspired by Sold A Story will commit to long-form coverage of how kids learn math, prominently featuring the battles over memorizing multiplication facts. Somewhat.
   - Math got lots of attention this year — from journalists and policy makers, with a number of states taking up legislation to address stark declines in student results following the pandemic. And there was no shortage of debates about how math should be taught, especially around California’s new framework. However, summarized well by Arun Ramanathan, there are stark differences between the evidence base in reading and math. And this debate does not yet feel like it’s center stage.

It was an eventful year — full of important studies, insights, and journalism. I would never have predicted that our relative position on PISA would go up, even with stark drops. I missed some significant state moves that focused resources on curricular materials and implementation. I did not predict the continued crisis in attendance, the growing disconnect between grades and student performance, or the growing debates about 3rd-grade retention policies.

With clarity that I am often wrong, here are my five predictions for 2024:

1. The obligation deadline of ESSER III will lead to fierce debates about how to measure the value of education investments, detailed discussions about accounting rules, and some wild spending decisions.
2. AI solutions that make the teacher and leader roles easier and support students in reading, science, and social studies will get widespread uptake. Solutions that support language translation will particularly excel; solutions for math instruction will lag behind.
3. There will be a growing split in reform energy between K–8 and high school — with K–8 focusing more on how to apply evidence of what works, and high school focusing on fundamental purpose and design questions.
4. Growing “math wars” will include battles over the appropriate role of flashcards in memorizing multiplication facts and even bigger debates about conceptual understanding and fluency. (I still think this is still coming….)
5. There will be a window of opportunity and pressure to reauthorize and fully fund IDEA that includes debate about the role of tutoring for students with disabilities. (A wild card.)

My dearest hope for the year ahead is that our education community will keep coming back to three fundamentals:

1. Education is incredibly important for students and families — and for our country.
2. It is possible to see significant improvement in education outcomes.
3. We need each other and need to cheer each other on. It will take many solutions to support real change — no one solution can do it all.

If we can do that, it can be a big year for students.

Wishing you and yours a restful holiday season, and I’ll see you in the new year.